A new study has revealed that the asteroid Apophis, which is notorious for passing close to Earth in 2029, is probably nothing to worry about. Scientists have calculated that this space rock will not collide with other space rocks that could worrisomely alter its orbit and redirect it toward Earth – at least until the day it flies past our planet. May it not pass.
Apophis The peanut-sized, near-Earth asteroid is a leftover from the formation of our solar system about 4.6 billion years ago. It continues to rock back and forth while rotating on its axis and rotates once every 30 hours. On April 13, 2029, the space rock is scheduled to make a close approach to Earth, coming within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) of our planet’s surface. This event will mark the closest flyby of an asteroid of this size to Earth that scientists managed to warn about in advance. This is also when NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft, previously named OSIRIS-REx, is about to encounter Apophis.
Connected: Apophis: the infamous asteroid we thought might hit us
While the 1,000-foot-wide (305-meter-wide) asteroid is not following a trajectory that would impact our planet — scientists have confidently ruled out any such impact for the next 100 years — this was not clear until now. How much its path can change, due to collisions with space rocks. A new analysis has calculated the paths of all 1.2 million asteroids and comets known to inhabit our solar system, reducing the risk to zero.
“Fortunately, no such collision is expected,” said the study’s lead author, astronomer Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario in Canada. statement, “Even when we know it’s going to miss us by a safe margin, astronomers remain alert. This is the asteroid we can’t stop looking at.”
Wiegert and his colleague Ben Hiatt of the University of Waterloo in Canada describe the new Analysis In a preprint paper accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal.
To reach their conclusions, Wiegert and Hyatt analyzed two independent databases cataloging the orbits of asteroids and comets in our solar system – one by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the other by the European Space Agency ( ESA). After combing through the catalog of asteroids and comets whose orbits fall within 0.001 AU of Apophis, the researchers found 376 objects from the JPL catalog and 396 objects from ESA; More than 300 of these objects appeared in both databases.
Simulations of selected orbits showed that none of the asteroids or comets studied would hit Apophis directly before passing near Earth in April 2029, meaning its orbit would likely be redirected toward our planet. Not there.
Wiegert and Hyatt also found that Apophis will pass by a little more than 310,000 miles (500,000 km) of another asteroid, named 4544 Xanthus, in December 2026. While the two space rocks will not collide – 4544 Xanthus will pass over the intersection point of the two just four hours after Apophis. According to the new study, “the encounter is so close that material accompanying Xanthus (if any) could have hit Apophis.” “This could result in disturbances in its future path that could affect the likelihood of its impact with Earth.”
However, how that material will change Apophis’ orbit is unclear.
Wiegert and Hyatt believe that any loose dust particles ejected from the 1.3 km long Xanthus could strike Apophis, although only future observations can confirm or refute the presence of material in its orbit. While millimeter-sized particles would not have a substantial impact on Apophis’ orbit, even a centimeter-sized particle, such as the one observed on Bennu, traveling at a speed of 11 kilometers per second would produce “the equivalent of 20 sticks of dynamite”. Energy may be released. ,” according to the new study. But for example, future optical observing campaigns could reveal whether Xanthus’s orbit contains any material to begin with.